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Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, powered by strong support from Black voters, women, and younger voters. Her victory secures Democrats a third straight term in the governor’s office — the first time that’s happened since 1961 — reflecting the state’s enduring blue tilt despite recent Republican gains.
Preliminary data from the Fox News Voter Poll, a survey of more than 4,400 registered New Jersey voters, showed Sherrill performed well with Black voters, voters under age 30, women, and college degree holders.
There was also a 20-point gender gap: about 6 in 10 women backed Sherrill while about 5 in 10 men favored Ciattarelli. Sherrill’s domination among women continued across all age groups, with her highest level of support coming from women under 30.
New Jersey female voters overwhelmingly favored Mikie Sherrill over her GOP opponent Jack Ciattarelli. (Fox News)
While Republicans have made gains among young men in recent elections, younger men in New Jersey sided with the Democrat this time.
Male voters in New Jersey were mostly split 50-50 between Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill and GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli. (Fox News)
The gender divide also extended to parents: moms broke for Sherrill nearly 2 to 1 while dads preferred Ciattarelli by a little over 10 points.
Sherrill’s multiracial coalition proved crucial to her win: she received support from over 9 in 10 Black voters and almost 7 in 10 Hispanic voters.
Hispanic voters – who have been a focus of Republican courtship in recent years – did not support Republicans as much as they hoped. Ultimately, they sided with the Democrats by over 30 points. White voters overall broke for Ciattarelli, largely fueled by a 20-point gap in his support among White men. White women closely divided their vote between Sherrill and Ciattarelli, with marginally more favoring the Democrat.
The majority of voters with a college degree backed Sherrill, while voters without a degree slightly favored Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli carried the Republican stronghold of White men without a college degree by over 40 points.
Representative Mikie Sherrill, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for New Jersey, during an election night event in East Brunswick, New Jersey, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Both candidates benefitted from the support of over 9 in 10 voters among their respective parties. Among the crucial swing group of independents, Sherrill was favored by just over half. Additional support from 6 in 10 self-described moderates provided her with the boost needed to win statewide.
About half of New Jersey Republicans identified as MAGA, and they nearly all threw their support behind Ciattarelli.
For 1 in 10 voters, this was the first time they voted in a gubernatorial election, and they backed Sherrill by 2 to 1.
Despite Sherrill’s Navy background, over half of military households voted for Ciattarelli. Among union households, Sherrill narrowly held on to Democratic support, taking just over half.
DEMOCRAT MIKIE SHERRILL WINS NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR RACE, KEEPS STATE BLUE AGAINST REPUBLICAN CHALLENGE
By a 2 to 1 margin, more voters have a negative view of how things are going in the country today than a positive view. These voters strongly broke for Ciattarelli.
Even with Trump off the ballot, his presence still played a defining role in the election. About 7 in 10 Sherrill supporters said their vote was to send a message of opposition to President Trump, while about a quarter of Ciattarelli voters said their vote was in support of the president.
The top reason New Jerseyans gave for backing Mikie Sherrill was opposition to Trump. (Fox News)
Trump’s approval rating among Garden State voters is underwater, with over half saying they disapprove.
Among the national parties, views of the Democratic Party are split down the middle, while views of the Republican Party lean unfavorable.
Issues of affordability clearly dominated voter concerns, with taxes coming in at the top, closely followed by the economy. Voters prioritizing taxes broke for Ciattarelli by over 20 percentage points, while voters who prioritized the economy favored Sherrill by a slightly wider margin. For voters who saw healthcare as a top issue, Sherrill received the bulk of support.
Nearly a third of New Jersey voters said the economy was an important issue for the state. (Fox News)
Nearly all voters said property taxes were at least a minor problem where they live, and 7 in 10 called it a major problem.
More than two-thirds of New Jersey voters said property taxes were a "major problem." (Fox News)
Rising electricity costs also loomed large in the race, with nearly 9 in 10 voters indicating it was a problem. Voters who said both property taxes and electricity costs were a major problem were more apt to support Ciattarelli, while those who only classified it as a minor problem supported Sherrill.
Fighting against these rising costs, voters understandably had a more pessimistic outlook on the state’s economy than optimistic. About 6 in 10 who have a negative view voted for Ciattarelli, and 3 out of 4 with a positive outlook backed Sherrill.
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Against this economic backdrop, 1 in 4 New Jersey voters said they are falling behind financially. The largest number, 6 in 10, said they are holding steady, and only a small fraction report they’re getting ahead. For the quarter of voters falling behind, Sherrill received majority support, while voters who are holding steady split their support about evenly between the candidates.
Voters are split on whether the next governor should cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement. But in response to the administration’s current actions, over half of voters think it’s gone too far, while about 3 in 10 say it’s about right.
Voters in the Garden State said bringing needed change, sharing their values, and working for people like them were some of the most important candidate qualities in deciding their vote. Change-motivated voters went for Ciattarelli, while those who prioritized value sharing and working for people like them favored Sherrill 2 to 1.
New Jerseyans said their biggest motivator in the gubernatorial election was bringing change. (Fox News)
The accusations about Sherrill’s Naval Academy graduation failed to dissuade voters from supporting her, as voters who prioritized honesty favored Sherrill by more than 40 points. More voters thought she ran a mostly fair campaign than thought Ciattarelli’s campaign was mostly fair. Sherrill also benefitted from a net-positive favorability rating, with over half of Garden State voters rating her favorably. The impact of a negative campaign cycle could have hurt Ciattarelli — about half of voters felt he ran a mostly unfair campaign and have an unfavorable view of the Republican.
More than half of New Jerseyans regarded Mikie Sherrill's campaign as fair. (Fox News)
Amid this heated race for governor, political corruption was on the mind of many New Jersey voters, with 9 in 10 identifying it as at least a minor problem. Those who saw it as a major problem were more likely to side with Ciattarelli, while those who saw it as only a minor problem favored Sherrill.
Only around half of New Jersey voters thought Jack Ciattarelli's campaign against Mikie Sherill was fair. (Fox News)
By a 2 to 1 margin, more Sherrill voters said their vote was in support of their candidate than against their opponent. Ciattarelli voters were even more enthusiastic, with 8 in 10 voting in support of the Republican.
Among the late-deciding voters, Sherrill was favored by almost 7 in 10.
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Term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s job rating is underwater as he prepares to leave office. After over a decade of Democratic leadership, roughly 1 in 5 Democrats disapprove of the job he’s done as governor. Independents have mixed feelings, with about equal numbers approving as disapproving, and nearly all Republicans disapprove.
METHODOLOGY
The Fox News Voter Poll is based on a survey conducted by SSRS with New Jersey registered voters. This survey was conducted October 22 to November 4, 2025, concluding at the end of voting on Election Day. The poll combines data collected from registered voters online and by telephone with data collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts per state. In the final step, all the pre-election survey respondents and Election Day exit poll respondents are combined by adjusting the share of voting mode (absentee, early-in-person, and Election Day) based on the estimated composition of the state final electorate. Once votes are counted, the survey results are also weighted to match the overall results in each state. Results among all more than 4,400 New Jersey voters interviewed have an estimated margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, including the design effects. The error margin is larger among subgroups.
