NEWT GINGRICH: Republicans have one big thing to learn about their 2025 wipeout

The Nov. 4 off-year elections were a smashing Democratic victory. This is the first and most important lesson Republicans should take from the results.

In elections in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia and California, there was a huge wave in favor of the Democrats. Governor Gavin Newsom’s referendum victory in California will certainly shape the 2026 midterms. Yet, there were some local Republican victories, such as the one for Nassau County executive in New York, which provided the GOP hints of a better future – if Republicans are willing to study and learn from them.

President Donald J. Trump suggested that his name not being on the ballot was a major factor in the outcome. This may be true, but it does not solve anything for Republicans. His name is not going to be on the ballot in 2026 or 2028 either. If Republicans do not learn how to connect with, motivate and turn out more Americans, we are in for a huge Democratic comeback in the next election.

Part of the 2025 results are congruent with a principle I learned with President Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 – and the Contract with America campaign in 1994. Wave elections carry everything with them. The deeply flawed and vulnerable Democratic nominee for attorney general in Virginia won – despite having written about killing the Republican Virginia Speaker of the House and hoping his children would die. The larger Democratic wave carried him past his own despicable behavior.

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Zohran Mamdani, New York City mayoral candidate, campaigns in the Brooklyn borough of New York, on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. (Adam Gray/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Republicans would like New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to be the future of the Democratic Party. But the outcome of the 2025 election suggests that Governors-elect Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey are much more likely to lead the party. The centrists are returning. This may encourage Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to consider running in 2028.

When you look closely, Spanberger and Sherrill have a surprising amount in common. Both have national security backgrounds (one as a CIA agent, the other as an Annapolis graduate serving in the Navy). Both are mothers (Spanberger has three children, Sherrill has four). Both campaigned as moderates and, when necessary, simply lied about the radical components of their records.

In a real sense, the Spanberger-Sherrill victories represent the re-emergence of the Obama formula. Former President Barack Obama perfected campaigning as a commonsense moderate while governing as a liberal, sometimes radical, policymaker. It made perfect sense that Obama did not endorse Mamdani. It would have weakened Obama’s image as a likable centrist.

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There was another characteristic of the Democrats’ victories which Republicans historically find hard to learn: the power of message discipline. In New York, New Jersey and Virginia, the mantra of the Democrats was affordability and the economy (the top issues concerning Americans). Republicans tried to raise social issues, such as men in girls’ sports.

Focusing in on this point, Republicans should make the economy their mission.

The fact is, the economy is theirs to lose. The One Big Beautiful Bill created enormous incentives for investing in America. Trump’s tariffs will ultimately tilt the scales toward American manufacturing over foreign manufacturing. And he has been personally involved in selling products and signing up capital investment.

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If all this works, there should be a Trump Boom by July 2026. If that happens, the Republicans will own the economy issue, and the Republican Congress will be safe. However, if the economy is anemic or seen as underperforming in 2026, the Democrats will almost certainly win the House by a significant margin.

If Republicans study and take to heart Tuesday’s lessons, the long-term drift toward the GOP will continue. But if Republicans refuse to listen to all the American people (and not only their supporters) – and only focus on what the Democratic winners did wrong (and not what they did right) – the Trump majority could be much shorter and less effective.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill, Democratic governor-elect in New Jersey, during an election night event in East Brunswick, New Jersey, on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

In 1980, President Ronald Reagan won a landslide election. Two years later, Republicans lost 26 House seats and seven governorships. A bad economy and some real communications mistakes (including scaring senior citizens about Social Security) led to a dramatic setback for Reagan. By 1983, former Vice President Walter Mondale was running ahead of Reagan in some polls. However, the Reagan team methodically thought through where the American people were – and what they wanted done. By 1984, Reagan recovered and won 49 states.

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In 1990, there was a weak economy. The Republican Party had been demoralized by President George H.W. Bush breaking his "Read my lips: no new taxes" pledge. The result was a disappointing off-year election. Republicans lost a Senate seat, and four GOP incumbent governors were defeated. Dissatisfaction with both parties led to two independent governors being elected. The House pickup would have been bigger since the Democrats had a 7.8% popular vote advantage, but the Democrats had a 267 to 167 majority, so it was hard for them to pick up a lot more seats.

Focusing in on this point, Republicans should make the economy their mission. The fact is, the economy is theirs to lose. 

The difference between 1982 and 1990 was that the Reagan team understood they had to change course to win in 1984. The Bush team simply could not bring themselves to confront how unhappy their base was – and how big the scale of change would have to be to win re-election. As a result, Ross Perot ran as a third-party candidate and helped end the 12-year Republican presidential ascendency.

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The big question for President Trump and the Republicans is: Will they listen to the American people and learn what went wrong like Reagan? Or are they going to shrug off a bad election and stumble forward with no serious introspection like Bush?

Time will tell which one today’s GOP takes.

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