What the results of the 2025 elections may mean for Democrats and Republicans

New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states to hold contests for governor in the year after a presidential election.

Those elections, which traditionally grab outsized national attention, are viewed by political pundits as key barometers ahead of the following year's midterm showdowns for the U.S. House and Senate.

And this year, the 2025 elections are seen as crucial early tests of President Donald Trump's unprecedented and relentless second-term agenda.

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President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office at the White House Oct. 6, 2025, in Washington, D.C.   (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

They also offer Democrats their first major shot at redemption, following last year's ballot box setbacks, when the party lost control of the White House and Senate, and failed to win back the House majority.

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Democrats in the two open-seat gubernatorial races are aiming to win back the governor's office in Virginia and keep control of the governor's office in New Jersey.

New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill, right, and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli, on the stage moments at the start of their second and final debate, on Oct. 8, 2025, in New Brunswick, N.J. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News Digital)

Looking at the bigger picture, seasoned Democratic strategist Chris Moyer says the 2025 elections are a "test case" on the cost of living argument.

Trump and Republicans effectively used the issue of affordability to their advantage in last year's elections.

"It's really a chance to see how to flip the cost of living argument against the incumbent party and the president, after they used it so effectively last year," Moyer told Fox News, as he pointed to soaring healthcare and electricity costs.

Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, left, and Democratic rival, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger. (Pool/Getty Images)

But longtime Republican strategist Ryan Williams sees the 2025 contests as "stand-alone elections."

"They're an anomaly," he told Fox News Digital. "They don't always predict a trend for the midterms."

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And he added that "by the time the midterms roll around, no one is thinking of what happened in New Jersey and Virginia."

But he noted that a victory in blue-leaning New Jersey by Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli, where the GOP has made voter registration gains over the past four years, "could show that blue-collar states like New Jersey are trending towards Trump and Republicans."