Baseball sports betting can be rather frustrating. I wrote a piece about the Brewers and Tigers yesterday that was on the teams scoring under 4.5 runs through five innings. The first three innings saw just one run. Innings four and five saw the Tigers plate four runs and hand me a loss. The rest of the game brought just two more runs. The full game went under, but not my play. The right read, the wrong result. I'd like to try and fix that today as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Chicago Cubs.
The Phillies have been one of the worst teams in baseball this season. They currently sit with an 8-16 record, and they are just 3-6 on the road. To make matters worse, the team has lost eight straight games. Not just that, they have lost 12 of 14 games. So is the issue the hitting, or is it the pitching staff? It is fairly easy to say both if you're losing that many games. They are allowing seven runs per game over the eight-game losing streak.
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Christopher Sanchez delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the first inning at Citi Field. (Gregory Fisher/USA TODAY Sports)
They turn to Christopher Sanchez, their best pitcher, to stop the bleeding. The last time the Phillies won, Sanchez was on the mound, and it just so happened to be against the Cubs. For the season, he is 2-2 with a 1.59 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He also has 39 strikeouts, good for fifth in the league. In his last game against the Cubs, he went six innings, allowed six hits and two earned runs while striking out eight hitters. Overall, the Cubs are hitting .271 against him.
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The Cubs are on the opposite end of the spectrum here. They are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have won eight straight games. Over the stretch of winning baseball, the Cubs haven't allowed more than four runs in a game and have averaged 7.25 runs per game. Six of their last nine games have been against Philadelphia, and Chicago has scored at least five runs in each of the contests.
Wrigley Field in Chicago hosts a game between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets on April 17, 2026. (Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
This afternoon, the Cubs send out Edward Cabrera to the mound. Cabrera, acquired during the offseason for highly touted prospect Owen Cassie, has been as good as advertised in the early going. For the season, he is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has allowed three earned runs in both of the past two starts, but he missed the Phillies in the first series they played. Having pitched for the Marlins last year, he has a lot of exposure against them. Overall, he has been okay, holding them to 21 hits in 85 at-bats.
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the first inning at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill., on April 17, 2026. (Kamil Krzaczynski/Imagn Images)
At some point, the Phillies have to get a win, right? They have the correct guy on the mound to do it. Sanchez is a really talented pitcher who might be in the Cy Young conversation this season. Cabrera's familiarity should help him navigate the Phillies' lineup. One play I like quite a bit is Cabrera under 5.5 strikeouts. He has not gotten to six in a game this season. He has faced the Phillies eight times in his career and has gone under 5.5 strikeouts in six of those games. Give me his under 5.5 strikeouts at -140.
If you're looking for a play on the game, I think the Phillies pull this one out. The problem is that it is very hard to trust their bullpen. I can't back them in a game at the moment. Just the one play for me, but Philadelphia is probably the right choice.
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