Baseball tends to be a season full of streaks from teams. Some months, teams are awesome; some months they stink. It is easier to notice the successes or failures of teams when they are earlier in the season. You can see when a team is struggling more easily when their record is 11-16 as opposed to 55-59, for example. What happens when one of the hottest teams in baseball takes on one of the coldest teams? That's what we have tonight as the Phillies play the Mariners.
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won their ninth straight game yesterday on a walk-off homer. It was a bit of a miraculous comeback as the Phillies were down 4-0 before the team scored six in the bottom of the ninth to win it. The team has won 16 of their past 21 games and is now threatening to take over the Braves for the best team in the National League East. It is fairly unlikely that they would miss the postseason, but that wasn't something that could be said before this stretch. On July 31, they were just four games above .500 and looking like the team that started the season instead of the one that had a great turnaround.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler throws against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Mo., on Aug. 12, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)
Today the team sends out one of their aces, giving them a good chance to make it to 10 wins in a row as Zack Wheeler takes the hill. Wheeler takes the ball today with a 10-4 record, 2.92 ERA, and a 1.01 WHIP. He has also racked up 144 strikeouts. He has been solid on the road this campaign with a slightly lower ERA at 2.67. This has been the worst month of his season, though. In August, he has allowed 10 earned runs over 17.1 innings of work. He hasn't completed six innings in any of his last five outings. Wheeler has been good against the Mariners in the past, holding them to a .172 batting average.
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The Seattle Mariners are one of the most frustrating teams in baseball. They are seven games under .500 this season, despite looking like one of the best teams in baseball, at least on paper. Somehow, the team is under .500 and in jeopardy of missing the postseason. They are currently three games behind the Rangers and Astros, who are currently tied for first. It doesn't help that they also have to battle the Orioles, Twins, Blue Jays, and Guardians for the final Wild Card spot. They are also three games back in that race, and the Tigers are just behind at 3.5 games.
Seattle Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis., on Aug. 19, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)
Looking to battle the Phillies and Wheeler is Logan Gilbert. For the season, Gilbert is 10-7 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. The problem that Gilbert has is that he has pitched much worse at home this season than on the road. He has allowed 20 homers this season, and 18 of them have come in Seattle. His road ERA is a stellar 2.49, but his home ERA is all the way up there at 4.01. He doesn't give up too many runs in the majority of starts, but this is not a place you'd want to trust him.
One guy that stands out for us to fade tonight is Randy Arozarena of the Mariners. For his career, he is just 1-for-13 against Wheeler with seven strikeouts. I'll take the under on his hits for tonight. Brandon Marsh of the Phillies is another one that might be worth fading tonight. He is just 2-for-17 against Gilbert with six strikeouts. I'm taking his under on hits tonight as well.
Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Brandon Marsh bats during an MLB game against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Monday, Aug. 17, 2026. (Jess Stiles/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect)
Aside from those plus-money props we have on the card, I've got a play for the game. The total is just 6.5 tonight, which is absurd to me. Gilbert allows runs on the road, and I think we should see the Phillies score three or four at least tonight. I'll take a shot on the over. I also think the Phillies will win this game tonight. The line is moving toward the Mariners, but Gilbert has shown he allows homers at home, and Wheeler has been great. Give me the over, Phillies, and the two player props.
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